I spent Sunday campaigning in Hamilton and chatting to people about the issues facing them. It was pretty clear that more and more people are starting to realise that this Government doesn’t have the interests of everyday Kiwis at heart and are looking for alternatives. Talking to community workers I heard of the poor, unhealthy and unaffordable housing conditions and homelessness locals are dealing with. Discussions like these remind you politics isn’t a game, it’s about real people and real issues. It was a motivating reminder how important it is to change the Government this year to one where we can make a positive change for New Zealanders
On Sunday night two TV polls showed National on around 50%, Labour around 30% and the Greens around 10%. National is polling high but the outcome is closer than it looks.
I think the results will be seen in hindsight as National’s high-water mark. The polls came after a successful budget for National. Thanks to massive debt, the selling off of energy assets for a song and some creative accounting delivered a media-friendly surplus. Good politics but bad economics. They then garnished the Budget with popular Labour-Green policies. Secondly, National benefits from the current debate being about the ‘Government versus the Opposition.’ National is able to set most of the terms of the public discussion with the opposition reactive and coming across well, oppositional. Once the campaign-proper starts people will look at politics and National differently.
The campaign is a contest of ideas and values. The campaign is our chance to put our ideas, values and solutions in front of people. It’s our chance to debate National Party politicians directly not as ‘Government Ministers’ and it’s our chance when the majority of Kiwis take an active interest in politics to actually talk about policies and differences.
This election may see the largest difference in policies between the two blocks in decades. There’s a real choice in 2014. With seventeen weeks to go the campaign starts now. Those of us who care about kids growing up in poverty, a clean environment and an economy that’s more than milk, logs and dodgy deals need to hold the line and campaign hard.
Despite National poling around 50% John Key is spot on, predicting ‘a tough and tight election.’ The Green Party’s polling has been very stable and we always improve on our polling once the campaign gets underway. If we can grow from 10% to 15% as we are aiming and take that off National’s 50%, then the two blocks are evenly matched. With a tight election every vote will count adding motivation to hundreds of thousands of Kiwis who last election saw the outcome as forgone so stayed home on Election Day.
This election matters. It’s game on. We can and need to win this for all New Zealanders.
Well said. Sure people like Nationals budget policy announcements, its a shame their announcements weren’t met by by media interviewing Key asking him why he thinks Labour and the Greens write better policy than National and why people should vote for National when their popular policies aren’t theirs.
I hope we’re going to be seeing a lot of that graph in the campaign.
If you want to take votes of Nat supporters they need to see the illusion they’re under.
Picture tells a thousand words stuff, that.
The correct timing of these polls is really critical to National. Consistently polled at positive periods for them and they remain high and somewhere in that 50%, people do the sheep thing and think well if that many people think they are doing well then it must be true. Timed during negative periods (very rare in NZ polling) for National with lowering poll results and a downward trend starts to form and the same sheep mentality applies.
Manage the timing of polls with negativity, real or manufactured toward the opposition in the media and a default lift applies for National.
Strangely only Roy Morgan appears to time their polling differently which perhaps explains the large variation from their last poll to the two NZ ones.
I can’t help but think Nationals millionaires with their track record of influence and money are somewhere in the background manipulating things because the latest poll result seems too unreal, too high.
You are right, politics shouldn’t be a game but that is what it looks like at the moment.
Yes though the timing is obviously rigged to favour National, this could backfire, as their lazier supporters may hopefully stay in bed on Sept 20 thinking blissfully that those exaggerated 50% will all be out there keenly voting. Even JK sort of acknowledged the inaccuracy on RNZ, he sounded a bit panicky……have his friendly pollsters overcooked the result. I agree why wouldn’t they be pulling strings they do it all the time, business as usual.
There is only one poll that I am interested in, and that’s on September 20th.
As long as we get everyone we know out to vote, whether that be family, friends, colleagues, acquaintances or strangers, we will win.
We can’t rely on Labour’s chasing after the swingers’ votes to win, we need to get out there and encourage the young, disillusioned, can’t-be-arsed to vote – they are the key to victory.
Strategic voting will of course be the other key factor – I hope that the Left parties have the nouse and maturity to be able to put their own electorate aspirations aside so that the Left votes aren’t needlessly diluted and wasted.
We need them to come together and be very clear about which seats they all go after, and which seats they will leave to other party candidates. There can be no place for vagueness and ambiguity – they must collaborate and communicate as to which candidate has the best chance and who progressive voters should support.
In a tight election, this WILL be the difference between a new progressive govt or 3 more years of carnage.
I’m completely and utterly optimistic that if we follow the strategy above, we will win (no prizes for originality here, we all know what’s needed).
Then it’s just a case of giving your party vote to Greens, Labour or Mana, to shape what should be a very impressive new coalition government.
Then we can party ! 🙂
The Greens Should Wake Up. There is Not One Candidate In the Party Who Can Win any Electorate Seat. So Why Not Use MMP Wiseley and Support the Best Labour Candidates in Each Electorate and Focus only on the Party Vote. Denise Roache Destroyed the Chance of a Labour/Green Govt last election By Splitting the Auckland Central Vote with Jacinda Ardern. Nikki Kaye Won thanks to Denise Supporting National by taking Votes Off the Labour Candidate. She took a bout 2,000 votes away from Jacinda who Should have Won the Seat. National may not have won the Election if MMP was used Better. in Epson people Could have Voted for the Nat Candidate to Destroy ACT. Crazy But if the Greens take Votes away from Labour then its 3 more years of Asset Sales etc.
Completely agree Graham, we have to be smart about the system we’ve got – and, now with Internet MANA ensure that National rue their decision to not drop the MMP coat-tails provision.
Adhern winning the seat wouldn’t have given Labour any more MPs and wouldn’t have affected which parties got to form government. How GP voters voted affected people who live in Auckland Central (who they got as their local MP), but it didn’t affect the outcome of the election.
The GP have arguably been screwed over by Labour historically. Now they campaign for their own party’s wellbeing, and going for the electorate vote supports the party vote. They’re playing the long game too, building towards having electorate MPs.
Myself, I think this election is crucial and that all the parties on the left should be looking at concessions openly and honestly. But if you want that to happen I suggest you lobby Labour to make the first move, because they’re the ones who started the selfish game (and have a look at what they are doing with the Māori seats currently).
Strange how even after all the asset sales,tax breaks for the rich 1 per cent,oil spills in Tauranga,amalgamation talks in Hawke’s Bay and Kapiti Coast etc we still give these badassses our support of 50%.What about all the work in Christchurch,massive building in Auckland and major transport of rail in Auckland’s Britomart.Oh yes how about that rail in Gisborne being revitalised compared with 2000 big trucks and getting those coal mining guys out in Westland.Yep these are just some of the next 4 year resolutions.Opposition candidates in these areas should campaign on these issues and let the people decide later if we are really sheep to the slaughter like now or the real intellect we all know we are.
…are a small, but vocal minority in New Zealand and need to accept that.
But English is telling everbody he has just got the Country into Surplus, however he does not explain the difference between the Current Account and the Long Term Balance and Statement of Position.
Bugger we have sold all the State Assets too.
“The polls came after a successful budget for National. Thanks to massive debt, the selling off of energy assets for a song and some creative accounting delivered a media-friendly surplus. Good politics but bad economics. They then garnished the Budget with popular Labour-Green policies.”
Yes, you sum it up well, Gareth. But it is not really “good politics” either, what the Nats deliver. It is nothing much else than an election year “bribe”, or attempted “bribe”.
The budget is full of contradictions, and re-arranged figures. They took some spending from Peter to pay Paul, so to say. That is what they are doing in health and education, and in other areas. For instance English has openly stated, they “saved” about a billion on welfare, and thus had that billion available to spend on measures benefiting many in the middle class.
The supposed Labour and Green policies they have apparently adopted are only very superficial bits of your policies. For instance the “free” GP visits to under 13 year olds are coming with conditions attached, and as Annette King already more or less got out of Tony “Rile”, it is likely that the subsidies will not cover true costs, so GPs will on the other hand charge more to working adults.
The education policy is about creating an “elite class” of teaching and principal professionals getting extra rewards, who will be taking on new responsibilities, that leave gaps, to be filled by extra work expected of less paid teachers and principals.
There was nothing for the poor unemployed or low paid, and extended parental leave and extra tax credits for new parents will also only benefit some, for which others will have to sacrifice.
Instead of spending extra in health to offer sick and disabled on benefits extra medical treatment, counseling, work related support, they offered nothing extra in that area in the health vote. All they pay extra is for more case managers and “work preparation” measures. For those that know a bit about it, it means, they will not offer practical assistance, just more pressuring of sick and disabled, to “motivate” them to take on any kind of paid work, to get them off benefits. That stinks, really!
As for the environment, we need not even start the discussion, as there was nothing really to do more to keep rivers and lakes clean, and to put more in integrated public transport, and to reduce carbon emissions from transport.
While things may look a bit bleak to the moment, any such situation is also an opportunity, to move and up the ante in the campaign, and hammer back with better ideas and policies.
I look forward to more innovative ones coming from the Greens.
How TRUE this statement is just ask any diabetic that is being harrassed into work without the support to be able to buy a full weeks meds and more till they get there full first weeks wages.
I have a diabetic friend who has lost six jobs i know of in the first two weeks of working in the last 9 months, because he couldnt get enough money to buy meds and got sacked under the 90 day rule .
Winz are nothing but a pack of cruel torturous bast…….s
These national party pricks dont give a shit.
“Instead of spending extra in health to offer sick and disabled on benefits extra medical treatment, counseling, work related support, they offered nothing extra in that area in the health vote. All they pay extra is for more case managers and “work preparation” measures. For those that know a bit about it, it means, they will not offer practical assistance, just more pressuring of sick and disabled, to “motivate” them to take on any kind of paid work, to get them off benefits. That stinks, really! –
See more at: https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/05/27/we-can-and-need-to-win-on-september-20/#sthash.ll5FbJ0Z.dpuf
1) It’s “bloc” not “block”
2) It’s “New Zealanders” not “Kiwis”
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