Latest iPredict scores has MANA at 1.1% and the Internet Party at 1.5% – combined that’s 2.6%, the party list percentages would roughly be…
2 seats (i.e. electorate and one list): (1.2%)
3 seats: (2%)
4 seats: (2.8%)
5 seats: (3.7%)
6 seats: (4.5%)
…at 2.6% a possible Alliance would already be close to pulling in 4 MPs if MANA win one Maori electorate.
iPredict factor those 3 seats into the following…
In light of speculation about a Mana/Internet Party arrangement, iPredict has also modelled what would happen if the parties merged for the purposes of the party vote and maintained their combined forecast party vote of 2.61%. Under such a scenario, National would have 55 seats, Labour 38, the Greens 13, NZ First 7, Mana/Internet 3, Act 2 and the Maori Party and UnitedFuture 1 each. Parliament would have 120 MPs and a government would be required to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply.
…if Labour/Green voters can be persuaded for strategic purposes to vote for the National Party Candidate and lock ACT out of Epsom, that eliminates ACT. If Annette wins Waiariki and takes out the Maori Party, that locks them pout and suddenly Key has only 55 seats plus Peter Dunne and no other friends to get a Parliamentary majority.
That scenario underscores the importance for the Greens to bury the hatchet with NZ First.
I’ve said it once, I’ll say it a thousand times, the election is far closer than the mainstream media are pretending.
I hosted the iPredict Election Show last election, and despite having zero of the budget of the much larger, better resourced mainstream media election shows, we got the election result closer than any other news agency.
It’s worth pointing out that a 2.6% election result for Mana-IP Alliance doesn’t help Mana as a party in terms of representation.
I think most people agree that Sykes will win her seat. Hone will win his. Mana will therefore already be on two seats. The third seat from the list will likely go to the Internet Party.
Therefore, unless the alliance can win a fourth MP off the list, Mana doesn’t gain anything as a party.
Mana will be playing the risking a lot to selflessly gift the “Left” only one more seat. Which won’t be necessary because it’ll likely come down to Winston.
It’s worth pointing out that you aren’t really in the loop though eh Disraeli. I appreciate for a loud critic of this idea like yourself, that it can’t make you smile to see a result like this in such a short period of time and seeing as .2% more could bring in a 4th MP, my basic problem with your opinion is that you have no idea what exactly the MANA Party will negotiate with the Internet Party, do you?
I didn’t see you at the AGM, are you telling us all that you are now on the MANA negotiating team Disraeli?
Well, I’ll guess we’ll see come election time who was right, won’t we?
But it might be said, it’s unlikely that any joint list would have the first three places go to Mana. That would serve the Internet Party no purpose.
It’s an educated guess, but I’d suspect the list would go: M-M-IP-M-IP-M-IP and so on.
That’s your educated guess is it? Why would MANA sign up to an alliance where they are only guaranteed 2 when they could win 3? Thank christ for the good people of MANA that you aren’t negotiating it.
Why would the Internet Party sign up to an alliance where they don’t get a seat until the alliance wins four MPs?
If you can’t work that out for yourself Disraeli then I am REALLY pleased you aren’t negotiating for MANA
Then explain it to me.
Am I running remedial classes here Disraeli? Let’s see what offer is actually negotiated before we start banking your educated guesses shall we?
Will you two cut it out! I presume there is some history between the two of you by this carry on.
Perhaps you get one of Winston’s bottles of scotch and sort it out quietly
*ears perk up*
Did someone mention scotch whiskey?! 🙂
Bomber, just admit that you don’t know either 🙂
I had dinner with Bomber at the Mana AGM he sat through 5 hours of robust debate so he has an indication. But you had to be there I guess.
I’ve long predicted that Mana will gain an extra seat this election; the Maori Party will be lucky to return one MP* (Te Ururoa Flavell); and Labour will claim the third Maori Party seat.
The Internet Party’s contribution will be cash. Lots of it. Sufficient to create a media campaign highlighting every rotten thing this shabby government has done.
And the fact that those dollars are from a capitalist entrepreneur just makes it all the sweeter.
As Hone Harawira said; “I’d deal with the devil to get rid of John Key.”
Because as someone else wrote recently (Martyn?) – a third term of National/Key will cement in their neo-liberal “reforms” and make it much harder/impossible for a social democratic government to roll back.
2014 is it, folks. Let’s not buggarise around with cutesy “principles” , whilst 250,000+ kids are going hungry; inequality is growing; workers’ rights are being further eroded; secret “trade” agreements are being signed all over the place; the police surveillance State is spreading; and the Right are emboldened to extend their cancerous reach through our society.
And if the Right win this election – can we imagine what the likes of Slater and Farrar will be getting up next?
If Dotcom wants to fund the campaign against the Right, I say, open your chequebook, mate. I have a few hundred thousand leaflets I want printed off and mailed to every State House tenant facing eviction under this quasi-fascist government.
After the election is won; Key is sent packing off to Hawaii; and we start feeding the kids and creating jobs – then we can indulge ourselves till the bloody cows come home with debate on “principles”.
Just my ten cents + 15% GST worth.
(* Though after “Native Affairs’s” shafting of the Maori Party tonight, I doubt if the Maori Party will see even one MP returned. They are history.)
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