Bryce Edwards asks if National could thrash Labour again in this year’s election. He points to the latest bullshit Fairfax/Ipsos land line opinion poll to back up this column.
Quite frankly when you consider the obscene pro-John Key propaganda and bias of the corporate mainstream media over the last couple of months, I’m surprised that 75% of the population aren’t feeling romantically close to the National Party.
When John Key is in regular phone contact with the worst hate speech merchant in NZ whose blog leads the mainstream media and when Espiner, Henry and Hosking are the new mouthpieces for the white neo-liberal establishment, it is no shock that these polls manipulate public opinion rather than reflect it.
Let’s remind ourselves that the Fairfax Poll before the last election had National at 54%, they of course won 47%, that’s 7% off for Christ’s sake! It’s so far outside the margin of error, let’s call this poll what it really is, a wet dream propaganda fantasy for mainstream corporate media.
The one thing propping up all this vacant National Party aspiration is the property bubble that has added more debt to credit cards and gave a retail sugar high over the holidays. Praying for another natural disaster to generate another building boom isn’t an economic direction and if you look at the warnings from overseas, our fake prosperity is going to hit the rocks this year.
So for Cunliffe’s Labour, how do they win? With the economy set to look like a Rockstar about to go cold turkey minus the drugs it needs to keep partying, the good time vibe will dissipate, and if Cunliffe can look outside his deeply divided Caucus at the wider Left and use MMP tactically, he can look like a unifier on the Left even though the ABCs within his own Party are purposely dragging their heels for a failure at the ballot box.
I would look at a raft of new blood being quietly prepared behind the scenes for the Labour Party list to show where Cunliffe’s energies have been best used over the break, and a clear indication by list demotions of those ABCs who need to find a new career path.
Also, expect Key’s credibility to be damaged after the Dotcom case. Trying to paint Cunliffe as ‘tricky’ will pale into insignificance if Key gets branded as a ‘liar’.
The cacophony of right wing bias masquerading as objective news from the msm needs to be a reminder to left strategists that no Journalist outside Campbell Live will bother being fair and balanced and as such they must strengthen their social media strategies.
I appeal to any Labour party members whose local MP is an ABC who seems to be throwing the fight: Primary their asses. Don’t renew their candidacy, just get rid of them. Who the hell do they think they are, putting the people through 3 more years under Key, Joyce, English and Collins just to make it easier for themselves the next time round? If you are on the electorate committe of an ABC MP, get busy selecting a new candidate, and put them up!
I have already contacted them….but to be certain they know what we think, write a letter of comment to TV3 and TV1 about their unfair and unbalanced party political broadcasters! I also lauded the one exemplary fair, unbiased current affairs presenter, Mr. John Campbell to TV3, and assured them he was essential to their channel.
People are scared because: Apart from milk fat we live in a service economy with few well paid jobs, next to no manufacturing, even some labour is imported. Property prices out of reach even for better paid people. Rates, insurance and power are raising. The ghost of unemployment and the prospect of being ridiculed and poor in unemployment. There are enough people who think they depend on John Key’s borrow-forever policy to keep this artificial show on the road for an other 3 years, cross fingers. Most people who vote National don’t think, they are too scared to. And they are led to believe that under Labour the rich will leave the country and all jobs will dry up.
And that’s what I see when I look around. On that basis National polls well.
I had an interesting chat to a young chap today who talked about how he followed his family tradition into voting NatACT, then switched to Labour/ Greens when he realised that the libertarian values he cleaves to are only given lip service by the NatACTs. While National are busy setting up Soviet-style mass surveillance (GCSB/TICS), the Left are the ones standing up for people’s liberty.
What puts such people off the Left though, is the aggressive, dogmatic attitude of leftist activists (to be fair usually not those aligned to political parties) towards people who don’t fit into their left-radical social ghetto. Being told they shouldn’t be at an anti-rape march (for example) is an excellent way to drive such people back to ACT/ young Nats.
The biggest change we need to make on the left has very little to do with policy, and much more to do with being welcoming, open-minded, and looking for commonalities to build relationships on, rather than differences to split over.
Martyn you’re right, the Fairfax poll is amongst the most inaccurate of all of the polls. However there does seem to be a trend that any honeymoon Labour may have enjoyed under Cunliffe has ended. Labour under Cunliffe is a comedy show, with every week bringing a new episode in stupidity. I honestly thought the Greens had far more political nouse and discipline, but after seeing Norman over the past couple of weeks, they look no better.
Seriously the left are staggering to defeat this year.
Landline poll!? Brilliant way to skew your results in favour of older generations (who also happen to more likely to vote National than younger people).
“A survey in 2012 by Canstar Blue found that a third of Generation Y in New Zealand have abandoned landlines; 14 per cent of Generation X and 8 per cent of Baby Boomers.” From http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/christchurch-life/8761615/Landline-phones-heading-for-extinction
Yes you’re not wrong Paul, BUT will they bother to vote?
That is the issue . We need a Just Vote Coalition to promote the need for people exercise their democratic right.
Agreed. I think the main problem is that politics have become something that is seen as very ‘other’ to young people. It is largely controlled by a narrow demographic for the benefit of a narrow demographic. How can it be made more relevant to them? How can young people become politicised?
Hi Paul. You can break through any bias created by the survey methodology by looking at the age group breakdown. In every category, national are ahead. While I don’t trust the overall margin in this poll, the trend across a number of polls is looking good for the centre right.
@ Paul – I am of the babyboomer generation and believe me, I wouldn’t touch National with a barge pole! Not even if you paid me. They are toxic!
This might come as a surprise, but many of my generation (now in their mid to late 60s) are Green voters, myself included, having deserted Labour after Rogernomics began its wanton destruction of working class Kiwis lives! We have not got over that betrayal!
And no, neither this household, nor that of our family, friends, neighbours, acquaintances have been invited to take part in a political poll, not ever! So goodness knows where the polls are taken. Probably in Parnell, Epsom and Helensville I’d say!
I am now unsure having read this article, but I thought I heard on the mainstream media last night that it was the left who had the use of mainstream media offices etc to organise their campaigns.
Not too strong on thinking for yourself then?
While I agree the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day, be assured all other polls are accurate within their margin of error at the time taken.
but that’s not true
Not true. The margin or error is a calculated value based on the sample size interviewed versus the total sample. It doesn’t account for interviewees giving incorrect answers, interviewers clicking the wrong box, missed quotas in particular age and gender slots, and any weighting calculations to offset missed quotas.
Agree with all the points but I don’t think Labour did itself any favours with its $60 a week policy. I think this has played an important part in Labour dropping back down to its core 30 percent vote. The majority of families at the bottom who benefit from it either don’t vote, or are just as likely, if not more likely, to vote National anyway based on prejudice against their fellow New Zealanders as engendered by the government. Those who don’t benefit from it will be at best indifferent and at worst turned off by it. Based on my admittedly limited anecdotal evidence this is definitely the case with some retirees. I would be considered left wing but I don’t agree with it either. I support targeted help for those who need it rather than automatically handing out money simply because makes a choice to have a child.
The other thing that is going to kill Labour is saying it is going to raise the retirement age. There is no real evidence this is going to actually make a significant difference, and teamed up with compulsory KiwiSaver will actually make life even more difficult for low income older voters.
I read a herald article by John Roughan http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11202478 which sort of spells out how a lot of older people don’t really expect to retire. Not at 65. I think the penny is starting to drop that children are the future. Bernard Hickey has something to say about this too.
To all those who scoff at $60/wk, if parents don’t need it, they can donate to the Salvation Army, Kids Can, or help out their neighbours.
While I agree the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day be assured all other polls are accurate within their margin of error at the time taken. Let’s see what the TV One poll shows on Sunday night.
Go directly to the people and explain Labour policies to them. Hall meetings, shopping centre meetings, street corner meetings. Back to the future.
Martyn I could not agree more that unless Labour gets its together to remove the ABCs in caucus and in the party they are on a hiding to nothing, too many gaffs since Cunliffe took charge not big but continual the latest being the TVNZ stupidity, Shane is a superb interviewer but what on earth was he doing holding political meetings in TVNZ stupidity is not a good look for a supposed 1st time candidate.
Its time to out the ABCs to the wider public, I continually battle with Labour diehards over this, their heads are in the sand saying that they are all gone or reformed, its time for the alternative media to broadcast to the Nation who these traitors are as MSM certainly will not do it.
I’m sorry criticising other members of Labour just doesn’t wash when Cunliffe has his own brother working for him. Very, very odd and another bad choice on his part especially given the “coincidental” loss of other staffers. He should at least give the appearance of not favouring nepotism. Can’t feel the love I’m afraid. Can’t he stand on his own two feet? Is it corruption? Is bro his “enforcer”?Sure starting to look that way. Sadly I think the Labour Party has stuffed up again.
I trust when Labour get a Fairfax poll rating such as National has just had you will also regard it as bullshit.
I don’t think you have any comprehension of the issues of bias that are involved in these landline polls, nor what it would mean if Labour were ahead. You’re just saying stuff without understanding it right?
JC…I understand your sentiment, but I genuinely don’t think there is even a sniff of hypocrisy in Martyn’s post. He’s simply making the point that the Fairfax poll seems to favour the centre right, and that is historically correct. If Labour were leading in the Fairfax poll, there would have had to have been a significant change in polling methodology, or the centre right would be in serious trouble.
Nice to have your thoughts Martyn. I know only to well what it would mean if Labour were ahead. That’s why I’m very happy with the polls as they are!
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