What I like most about John Key (which is not a lot) is his speeches. He is really quite guileless in letting us know what he thinks. At last week’s Australia-NZ business bunfight Key’s speech showed what a pushover he is on our behalf. The actual transcript ran thus:
Well, I mean, my sense of it is that President Obama is very committed to a very high-level, comprehensive deal. That doesn’t mean that he can ultimately get fast-track authority, or can necessarily enjoy the level of support it would need to pass, but he personally is very committed to it and they are the comments he’s made to me. I think from Australia and New Zealand’s point of view, we can see the enormous economic gains for our countries, providing a good deal is signed. So, we’re certainly of the view that now’s the time to try and complete a deal. If we don’t get that in the first six months of this year, then my guess is it’s going to become more challenging as time goes on, so we are going to push hard, and continue to put pressure on our trade ministers to try and see if it can be resolved. I think it’s possible. Our risks are either in losing some of the counter-parties along the way, or a downgrading of the overall ambition for TPP, but at the moment, everything I’ve seen continues to tell me that a high-level comprehensive deal is still achievable, and achievable this year.
Yes, you got it. Obama suckered Key on the golf course. Photo ops come at a price. FIRST Key concedes that Obama may not get fast track for TPPA, meaning the US Congress can pick it apart – indeed, there is no way the fast track Bill can even get to a vote by November, because Senate Majority Leader Harry Read, who decides the legislative timetable, doesn’t like it and said so.
AND Key concedes that Congress may not approve the TPPA itself when it comes to a vote …
BUT Obama has assured him that he really wants the TPPA.
SO even though Obama can’t deliver on anything he promises – and Congress will demand the US gets more and gives less away (if that’s possible) than team Obama agrees to – Key can still see enormous gains for New Zealand and we should rush to finish the deal as soon as possible. If the ministers can’t agree soon, there is a risk it might not happen. Duhhh!
That’s why there is another secret squirrel meeting of TPPA ministers in Singapore from 22 to 25 February. There has been no formal announcement. The media received an invitation on Monday to register, but were told not to go public. In other words, the governments don’t want a repeat of the embarrassment in December when the media reported the deals that were being made, and Wikileaks managed to publish two documents on what one of the delegations thought about what was going on.
The week before this latest ministerial the officials will convene, at US expense, in the Intercontinental Hotel. The NZ delegation is apparently staying there. Assume around 12 officials are there for the ten day duration, including the ministerial meeting, at the special rate we understand is US$428 a night. And they are flying to Singapore business class. And that Groser will have his own entourage. The taxpayer can kiss goodbye to around $100,000. What could women’s refuge do with that?
Why are they having this meeting? We were told from various quarters there would be no ministerial until they could walk away from it with a deal. That could not happen until the US and Japan reached agreement on autos and ag. There is no such deal.
A second option is that the other 11 ministers are willing to play lapdogs to bolster Obama’s creds and give him something to sign when he tours Asia in April. The message for domestic US consumption is that ‘fast track doesn’t matter’. That is a possible explanation, based on Key’s response, in which case we can expect a sell out.
A third possibility is that the ministers want to advance the work they didn’t get done in December, because the US’s strategy to finesse them into making decisions backfired. Again, that’s possible, but they will be hoha about having more of these meetings without being able to claim victory. But that is the most rational explanation, and this process is political, not rational.
Finally, the cheerleaders may feel the need to rebuild momentum they lost after their December meeting. They know it will slip away further if they don’t meet again soon. The cost will be hard to justify. Chile has a new government that is not a fan of the TPPA. Opposition is mounting everywhere.
That is a real concern for National. The pressure at home has intensified. The leaders and co-leaders of the New Zealand First, Green, Maori and Mana parties all endorsed an open letter by senior legislators from seven countries that was released today, which calls for the publication of the draft text of the Agreement before any final agreement is signed with sufficient time to enable effective legislative scrutiny and public debate.
Other signatories to the open letter include the Vice-President of Peru, the leader and trade spokesperson for Canada’s two main opposition parties, the trade spokesperson for Australia’s Green Party and several former Cabinet ministers from Japan.
Labour didn’t sign. But yesterday, it came off the fence and formally supported release of the TPPA text too. They moved a parliamentary motion: That the House call on the New Zealand Government to publish the text of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement before any final agreement is signed, with sufficient time to enable effective legislative scrutiny and public debate; either when it is made public by the United States Congress, or not less than 14 days prior to its signing in New Zealand; whichever is the earlier.’ National opposed the motion, so it was unable to be read out.
The motion largely echoes one the ALP moved in the Australian Senate last December. It was passed but the Liberals said no. It’s a start, but two weeks is barely time to scratch the surface, let alone have a meaningful debate in public and Parliament.
Again, Key brought his best bizarre logic to the fore when responding to Winston Peters’ parliamentary question demanding release of the text. ‘For a start-off, all members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership—all 12 countries—have agreed to keep negotiating text confidential. Secondly, our negotiators are negotiating in the best interests of New Zealand. You would not think, actually, that we would go out and there and want to give an advantage to the other countries we are negotiating with.’ Sorry – aren’t those other countries already privy to the text that we want to see?
A second own-goal that has undermined the government was their reliance on a Peterson Institute study to claim $5 billion gains to New Zealand from the deal. A report led by Geoff Bertram for the Sustainability Council debunked the methodology and blew the claims right out of the water. The Employers and Manufacturers replied with a load of nonsense that drew a strong rebuttal from the Council. The critique clearly had an impact. Key has since downgraded his claims to $2-3 billion gains – still shonky but shows how a finance dealer can manipulate the numbers …
Another great post Jane
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10201589476598349&set=p.10201589476598349&type=1&theater
Good one. Are TPP the initials of the Trojan Plough-horse Plan?
Thank you, Professor Kelsey, for another excellent posting.
If anyone reading this thinks that the revelations on Countdown’s “business policies” opened up yesterday by Shane Jones are a ‘Flash in the pan’ (and I don’t) then consider this:
Under the PPTA, the battle for the right of overseas corporations to shaft Mum-and-Dad Kiwi citizens in order to benefit their overseas shareholders is only about to just begin!
If we sign up to thr PPTA, then the Shane Jones condemnation of what is going on with Progressive Enterprises will be a mere foretaste of things to come.
Not only will OUR largely overseas-owned economy be subject to the whims of overseas corporate boards, we will be open to overseas-instigated law suits if OUR Government dares to disagree with the multinational corporates. And note that cases against OUR government will be heard, not in NZ courtrooms and under NZ Law, but by OVERSEAS tribunals.
The membership of these tribunals will no doubt be something over which we will have little or no say, of course.
And incidentally, the National-government-led delay tactic on the “tobacco plain packaging debate” is further evidence that this Government is COMMITTED to seeing the PPTA through to the bitter end.
A National disgrace? Absolutely YES!
I don’t know if the post primary teachers association should catch the blame for this one, 🙂 . But I agree with the sentiment, Murray.
The China NZ FTA was negotiated in the same way. Did you object to that and if so were any of the fears expressed around that justified given the huge increase in trade between the countries since it came in to effect?
Yes, opponents of corporate globalization did object to the backroom negotiation on the China FTA. In answer to your second question, I think you only need to look at the tonnes of low-quality junk flowing through both $2 Shop style bargain bin retailers, and big box retailers like the Warehouse, most of it going straight into landfill within a year or purchase, and driving up our overseas debt. Also the many NZ businesses who have lost out to lower quality imports, for example, MacPac who got undercut at every turn by Kathmandu. MacPac used to be high quality gear made in NZ by properly paid workers. Now they too sell second-rate gear made overseas. In other words yes, the fears expressed about the China FTA have materialized exactly as predicted.
Having said that, the China FTA and the TPPA are not the same kind of deal. The China agreement only affected China and NZ, whereas the TPPA is a regional version of the MAI which will affect the entire region, and if it is concluded, it will be pushed on other countries in the region who had no say in the drafting of it.
There are few similarities between the two deals. Especially the multinational corporate wishlist the US has introduced is absent from the China deal. China played it straight, the US is instead determined to wring every possible advantage from the TPPA. Which makes it unattractive. The Green Labour incoming government should just strike it down – NZ will see no benefits until 2030 even if Joyce doesn’t make a complete mess of it.
Your clear concise fact based arguments are winning support.
Only hope it can become a groundswell soon.
More and more of my friends and family are now at least talking about it!
You like Nicky Hager are undervalued diamonds in our greywhacke land.
Here is hoping this corporate takeover con job is seen for what it is.
Keep publishing and fighting we need your voice and intellect more than ever! Keep at it Jane.
GOSMAN – Take note that due to the federal reserve and a government that hasn’t learnt fiscal responsibility, the United States is on the brink of financial collapse. The deal with China at least makes sense as their trade is extremely valuable given their interest in our tourism, wine, dairy products, wool etc. Look up ‘America Debt Clock’ and see for yourself. I feel that the United States is doing this as a parasitic grasp of desperation as their options thin out.
The US is but one component nation amongst the countries negotiating the TPPA. Regardless a FTA should not impact all nations involved even if a significant party did suffer economic difficulties. It facilitates trade but doesn’t lock trade in.
Yes, the USA is just just one negotiator, but it was a late-comer (as was Japan). The original signatories, which did not include the USA were negotiating a free trade agreement along reasonable lines. Then the USA, and later, Japan decided to join in. And that is where the agreement went off the rails.
The USA decided to turn it into a “Power-grab” rather than a free trade agreement. It is now no longer a free trade agreement but rather an attempt to re-invent US economic imperialism in order to try to prop up a rapidly-failing, debt-riddled US economy.
Unfortunately, “the terrible trio” – Key, Groser, Joyce, have neither the wit nor the wisdom to see it for what it has now become.
The trouble for you on that front is it isn’t a NZ – US FTA so it doesn’t matter if the people you mention are complete morons, American patsies, or Reptillian space aliens. The agreement would require all nations to kowtow to US interests if it was hijacked as you think and this is unlikely to occur.
Golf is the perfect metaphor when it comes to John Key’s negotiations on behalf of this country: the other side always seems to get a hole in one before they’ve even left the clubhouse.
We can’t even use Mark Twain’s axiom anymore that golf spoils a good walk ’cause the American eagle and his smiling birdie are riding in a cart!
We can’t even use Mark Twain’s axiom anymore- that golf spoils a good walk- ’cause the American eagle and his smiling birdie are riding in a cart!
Secondly, our negotiators are negotiating in the best interests of New Zealand. You would not think, actually, that we would go out and there and want to give an advantage to the other countries we are negotiating with.’ Sorry – aren’t those other countries already privy to the text that we want to see?
I don’t disagree with your post, but think you’ve misunderstood here. Key isn’t saying that he wants to keep other countries from seeing the text, he’s saying that we should be happy to just trust our negotiators because they have our best interests at heart and would never negotiate a deal that advantaged other countries at our expense.
That’s actually worse, when you think about it. I certainly don’t trust our negotiators not to disadvantage some citizens (eg online shoppers, people on prescription medicines) in order to advantage others (eg dairy farmers), in fact I find that worryingly plausible.
Key will bend over and take it no matter who it is. He is a sucker for a good story. Kiss our sovereignty away. Aloha Sir John Key!!!
The sheer fact they are trying to close (create?) a deal without revealing its contents should suggest its very shady. Now we know enough about it and what John Keys’ regime is really trying to achieve, there is no doubt in my mind its the last thing we ever need. Its blantantly obvious and it angers me we even have to go this far to protect our country. It doesnt seem like a democracy at all. Its like he owns the country and we all have to beg him to be nice to us. After watching some of the parliametary footage the rest of our ministers pay him far too much respect. And the speaker for the house seems to be in his pocket too. Its like some kind of two man gang that goes round bullying the other kids in the playground. Reminds me of my third form days in a west auckland high school!
Really, he needs to be told to shove it, and our system needs to remind him he doesnt own the country..
Do you think the China NZ FTA is shady? I ask because it was negotiated in a very similar way, as are many FTA and other international agreements.
I think we need to ask ourselves why do we as a people let this happen again and again and again. I moved to New Zealand recently and was shocked to see how pathetic the population here is. Everybody lives in a total state of denial that New Zealand has become a wasteland of intellectual thought and just bows over and lets itself be controlled bu whoever can be bothered. This post and discussion sums it up best. http://e2nz.org/2014/02/08/new-zealand-your-culture-is-toxic/#comments The bulk of New Zealanders are mindless zombies
‘The bulk of New Zealanders are mindless zombies’
I agree totally Sam it is a total embarassment!!
Jane Why can’t this subject be thrashed out on Campbell Live ..with you ,the Sustainability Council etc and have Jonky front up and made to answer the questions needed to be asked!
New Zealand has already sold its soul to the Devil.
New Zealanders believe what the Press tell them and the majority do not have the ability to think for themselves.
John Key is New Zealands great economic saviour parachuted in from New York to save our struggling nation.
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