The mainstream media are generally clueless on Maori issues so expecting anything meaningful from them over the Ikaroa-Rāwhiti by-election is a waste.
In the Te Tai Tokerau by-election of 2011, Maori TV claimed Hone was only ahead by 1%, Hone ended up winning by 9%.
That was despite 4 anti-Hone editorials in the NZ Herald. That was despite Guyon Espiner from TVNZ predicting Te Tai Tokerau for Kelvin. This was despite John Key coming out in favour of Kelvin, despite the Labour Party ‘machine’ and despite an attack on MANA by Russell Norman.
Despite all the naysayers and pundits, Hone won Te Tai Tokerau.
I get the feeling that a lack of intel will similarly shape the media punditry for the Ikaroa-Rāwhiti by-election. Speaking with many who attended Horomia’s tangi, there was no clear consensus as to Labour winning and the electorate is open to hearing the debate from candidates.
The Maori Party has two contenders (one of whom it is rumored called Labour to see if they could stand for them, so poorly were they received by the factionalized Maori Party candidate selection process).
Labour have three candidates and a problem with their main contender having real issues being accepted by the local branches.
MANA will have their candidate decided soon and the suggestion is their candidate will be the most dynamic out of the entire field.
Employment, provincial development, poverty and oil drilling are the main drivers of issues and the by-election will allow the Parties to showcase their policy on each of these fronts.
The real political battle in this will be the number two spot. It is who gets silver that matters more here than the gold.
If MANA beat the Maori Party for second place, it is game on for every Maori electorate in 2014 and will spell the end of the Maori Party as a political force.
MANA have everything to win here, the Maori Party have everything to lose and Labour can’t risk winning by a small margin.
This by-election has far ranging ramifications to the viability of a left wing majority beating the National Government in 2014, progressive voters and media news junkies should stay aware of the trends.
Even if the Maori Party can’t win 1st or 2nd place, it doesn’t mean they are spent as a political party. I could see Flavell winning his seat again, as well as Sharples, so even if Turia resigns they won’t be completely gone.
If Mana beats the Maori party in the By-election, it will mean one thing come 2014. Mana and Maori splitting the nationalist vote and Labour winning all seven.
[…] The question will be if Labour and the Greens are ready to butt heads together on the campaign trail. Their inclusion in the race will infuriate Labour, as it will erode Labour vote more than anyone else making a 3 way race into a 4 way race where the real prize will be second place. […]
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